WORKING PACKAGE 4

Spatiotemporal trajectories, vulnerability implications and social-ecological theory of change for the sustainability of SES

This WP will perform integrative tasks on a retrospective and prospective manner. First, empirical data obtained in WP2 and WP3 will be integrated to generate a first lineal semi-quantitative identification of past social-ecological trajectories. Second, in order to integrate the social and ecological results from WP2 and WP3, WP4 will perform an integrative modelling using the Ocelet language and simulation tool. Ocelet models changes in geographical landscapes through the use of interaction graphs to represent the different sub-systems in each SES.  Ocelet allows spatially locating these different sub-systems and specifying the interactions among them to make the system change through time. Modelling the past behaviour will explicit the trajectories of the SES and how they relate to the resilience of the system and to their vulnerability under climate change scenarios. Finally, we will perform prospective analysis to understand how business as usual vs best case scenarios might affect the sustainability of the whole watershed.

 

In particular, WP4 will consist on:

Definition of entities and model specifications:

 

Integration of empirical evidence and simulation of past trajectories:

  • Empirical data obtained in WP2 and WP3 will be integrated to generate a first lineal semi-quantitative identification of past social-ecological trajectories;
    - Simulations will be guided by the main processes and interactions identified and empirically described in the previous WPs. An example of processes will be i) the geographical distribution of plots as a means to face climatic risks, ii) the effect of fallowing practice in a spatially constrained cotton dominated landscape and iii) the consequences of reduced access to credit for farmers to buy fertilizers. 

  • Elaboration of prospective scenarios.

 

Comparison of results and description of a social-ecological theory of change for sustainable SES:

  • Retrospective trajectories based on empirical evidence and prospective modelling will allow identifying pathways of change. Pathways of change will be systematized to identify which SES key variables, interactions and outcomes have been the more decisive in generating the observed changes both in terms of sustainability and degradation. This generic pathway of change will be enounced in terms of causal mechanism or theory of change.

1

2

3

1/1

Leaders

Valéry

Gond

CIRAD–FORETS

Lucia

Almeida

UNAM-Facultad de Ciencias