WORKING PACKAGE 3
Ecosystem services transitions: exploring the evolution of types of services produced by the SESs
This working package will summarize complex spatial and temporal dynamics of land-use changes integrated with socio-institutional data (public policies and networks actors influencing the land cover dynamics – WP1 & WP2). First, we will use the Invest model (http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/invest/) to map several types of ecosystem services indicators (climate regulation through carbon storage, water cycle regulation through infiltrability, ecosystem regulation through biodiversity populations). Second, we will use statistical methods to forecast the distribution of service indicators such as regression tree (CART algorithm) or multiple linear regressions (Vallet et al., 2016). The multi-temporal land cover mapping will be obtained from geometrically and radiometrically corrected satellite images to characterize the composition and structure dynamics of land use changes in order to capture key forest-agriculture outcomes such as the degree of agricultural intensification .
In particular, WP3 will consist on:
Mapping of ecosystem services indicators:
The mapping of climate regulation through carbon storage, water cycle regulation through infiltrability, ecosystem regulation through biodiversity populations will be done using InVest model.
Elaboration of a multi-temporal land cover analysis:
Such a multi-temporal a land cover analysis will produce two main outcomes: a land use change map and overlapped principal component analysis of how land use has changed inside each of the governance units and of the SESs.